A decade after its last growth wave, Pakistan is showing the same winning signs again. In 2014–15, Pakistan’s economy quietly flipped the script. Exports surged, reserves crossed $10 billion, CPEC was launched, and trade agreements with the EU reshaped Pakistan’s global standing. The result? GDP rose from 2.6% in 2013 to 4.7% by 2016. Investors who understood the signals early were rewarded handsomely.
Now, in 2024–25, we’re seeing the same economic signals resurface stronger and louder than ever.
The Indicators Are All Flashing Green
According to Reuters, GDP grew 2.4% in Q3 of FY25, prompting the National Accounts Committee to revise Pakistan’s full-year projection to 2.68%, expanding the economy’s size to $410.96 billion.
Simultaneously, inflation has hit a 56-year low, with the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reporting CPI at 0.30% in April 2025, down from 0.70% in March — the lowest rate since 1968. This price stability is the backbone of the current rally in confidence.
Agriculture posted a surprise 1.18% growth in Q3 despite sectoral challenges, signalling resilience in rural productivity. Meanwhile, the State Bank of Pakistan slashed interest rates by 100 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 11% and laying the foundation for more accessible credit and liquidity in the market.
External Flows and Fiscal Discipline Drive Stability
Pakistan’s current account surplus hit $700 million in the first eight months of FY25, buoyed by a combination of favourable import prices and rising external inflows. Bloomberg reports that remittances are expected to exceed $38 billion in 2025, providing critical support to Pakistan’s balance of payments and currency reserves.
Fiscal reforms are also holding strong. The government has intensified efforts to tighten spending and boost tax collection, reinforcing investor confidence in the long-term stability of the economic system.
Big Names Are Taking Notice
Global financial institutions have begun endorsing the shift.
- IMF Managing Director: “Pakistan’s economy is moving in the right direction with strong reform efforts.”
- IFC: “We believe in Pakistan’s long-term potential. Committed $2bn/year to support growth.”
- Fitch Ratings: Upgraded Pakistan’s outlook to ‘B Stable’, citing improving reserves and macro stability.
- Moody’s noted the outlook was revised to positive, reflecting “improving macroeconomic conditions.”
- Barron’s recently highlighted Pakistan as an outperformer among emerging markets, regaining macro control.
Ground Reality: Confidence is Climbing at Home Too
But this is not just a top-down recovery — the public feels it too.
Independent surveys show an undeniable shift in local sentiment:
- Ipsos reports confidence and optimism at a 6-year high.
- PwC: CEO optimism has jumped from 49% to 83% year-on-year.
- OICCI’s Business Confidence Index moved from -5% to +11% — a historic turnaround.
- Gallup found that household financial outlook improved 27.5% in one quarter, with growing optimism in rural and middle-income groups.
What Pakistanis Are Feeling Right Now
- Direction of the Country: 2 in 5 believe Pakistan is on the right path. Optimism is highest in KPK and Punjab, especially in rural and middle-income groups.
- State of the Economy: 3 in 10 say the economy is strong — the highest since August 2019. Optimism is higher among women and both low and high-income groups.
- Household Expenses: 1 in 5 feel more comfortable meeting household costs than last year. Sentiment is stronger in rural areas.
- Future Outlook: 2 in 5 expect the economy to improve in 6 months — optimism now outweighs pessimism for the first time.
- Personal Finances: Over 1 in 3 believe their financial condition will strengthen soon, especially women and youth.
- Investment Confidence: 1 in 4 feel confident investing — the highest in 6 years. Big-purchase confidence has jumped from 1% to 17%.
- Job Security: Nearly 3 in 10 feel secure in their jobs, especially rural residents, youth, and middle-income workers. It’s the best since 2019
- Global Confidence Index: Pakistan rose 4 points in the last quarter, outperforming other emerging markets across all sub-indices.
- Emerging Market Ranking: Pakistan ranks above Türkiye in consumer confidence, though it still trails behind similar economies.
The Boom Beneath Our Feet?
All the core ingredients of the 2014–15 upswing are back: rising GDP, fiscal discipline, investor trust, strong remittance flows, and public optimism. But this time, there’s more — inflation is at record lows, global institutions are backing the recovery, and confidence on the ground is peaking.
So, the question is no longer whether Pakistan is on the upswing. It’s whether you’ll move early enough to ride it.
At One Homes, we build for these very moments. Our developments in Lahore and Islamabad are crafted for overseas Pakistanis who recognise patterns early, invest with vision, and grow with the country’s next chapter. The comeback isn’t coming. It’s already here.
