Pakistan posted a Rs1.5 trillion federal surplus in the first quarter of FY26, the kind of macro signal that shifts how global investors view risk. At One Homes, we help overseas Pakistanis and foreign buyers invest in Pakistan real estate through professionally managed, construction-linked residential projects. In this piece, we look at what this surplus actually means and what to watch as 2026 unfolds.
The Surplus Is Real
This Pakistan fiscal surplus in 2025/2026 isn’t just a headline; it reflects real shifts. Non-tax revenues soared State Bank profits, petroleum levies, and windfall receipts. FBR tax collection rose as well, but the structure is still fragile.
The signal is positive, but it’s not yet permanent. For this to hold, Pakistan needs structural tax reform and fiscal discipline. Still, for anyone evaluating whether real estate in Pakistan is a good investment, stable public finances are part of the foundation.
GDP Growth Is Up, But Not Balanced
The Pakistan GDP 3.04% FY25 revision shows momentum, with Q4 clocking in at 5.66% growth. Industry led the charge, utilities spiked 121% and construction rose 17.6%. Services inched forward; agriculture stayed flat.
This isn’t a blanket recovery, but the sectors seeing movement, construction and utilities are closely tied to real estate and infrastructure. These are signals that matter for rental yield in Islamabad apartments and other long-term asset plays.
US Export Demand Helps Anchor Stability
In August 2025, Pakistan’s exports to the USA hit $496.7 million, up 4.8% YoY. Over the first two months of FY26, that total reached $1.11 billion. For Pakistan’s external account, this is a tailwind.
Why does this matter to investors? Because export strength stabilises foreign exchange, which lowers volatility a key consideration for those looking to buy property in Pakistan from the UK or USA and manage their currency exposure.
Ratings Momentum Reflects Lower Risk
In August 2025, Moody’s upgraded Pakistan’s outlook to Positive, and Fitch followed with a B-/Stable rating. These moves reflect policy traction, stronger external buffers, and ongoing IMF program alignment.
This lowers Pakistan’s sovereign risk premium a direct factor in project finance costs and long-term real estate planning. It also reassures overseas investors asking whether it’s safe to buy off-plan property in Pakistan because lower macro risk supports a more stable development pipeline.
What This Means for Overseas Property Buyers
If you’re wondering how macro stability affects property investment, here’s the answer: lower FX volatility, steadier interest rates, and a more investable environment for long-term assets. That includes real estate.
At One Homes, we offer construction-linked payment plans in Pakistan designed for overseas buyers with valuation transparency, legal due diligence, and turnkey rental management included. Whether you're buying a vacation home in Pakistan, a long-term rental, or a primary residence for the future, our model is built to remove friction and reduce risk.
