In a recent research paper titled ‘The Path to 2075,’ economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas from Goldman Sachs have projected Pakistan to emerge as the sixth-largest economy globally by 2075, provided the nation adopts “appropriate policies and institutions.” The study, which covers 104 countries and extends its projections to 2075, envisions China, India, the US, Indonesia, and Nigeria as the five leading economies.
Central to Pakistan’s future economic prominence is its population growth, anticipated to position it among the world’s largest economies in the next five decades, alongside Egypt and Nigeria. Goldman Sachs estimates Pakistan’s Real GDP to reach $12.7 trillion, with a GDP per capita of $27,100 by 2075. However, these figures pale in comparison to China, India, and the US, with India projected to lead with a Real GDP of $52.5 trillion and a per capita GDP of $31,300 by 2075.
Despite these optimistic projections, the economists at Goldman Sachs identify key risks, primarily “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism.” Climate change, if not addressed through a globally coordinated response, could significantly alter these forecasts, especially for countries like Pakistan that are particularly vulnerable due to their geographical locations.
The rise of populist nationalism globally is another factor that could disrupt the projected trajectory. The report suggests that increased protectionism, driven by nationalist policies, may reverse globalisation trends, leading to heightened income inequality among nations.
The research paper also highlights other global economic trends, including a declining path in global growth, the shift of global GDP towards Asia, a decreasing global population, and a divergence in income inequality between and within economies.
As the world braces for substantial shifts in economic dynamics, Goldman Sachs urges nations to prioritise sustainable growth to mitigate the potential risks outlined in their projections. The path to 2075, as envisioned by the economists, presents both opportunities and challenges, with the need for global cooperation to ensure a stable and prosperous future.