Blog | One Homes

SBP Predicts 2.5–3.5% Growth and Stable Outlook for FY25

Written by Saliha Aziz | Apr 29, 2025 1:28:42 PM

Pakistan’s economy is showing continued signs of strength, backed by clear and measured progress. In its half-year economic report for FY25, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projects average inflation between 5.5% and 7.5%, and GDP growth in the range of 2.5% to 3.5%. These forecasts are grounded in falling inflation, steady exports, strong remittance flows, and fiscal discipline.


At One Homes, we see this economic direction as the foundation for something bigger: trust. And it’s this trust that’s driving overseas Pakistanis to reinvest in their country, not just emotionally, but financially. Developments like Trinity One in Islamabad are designed with that confidence in mind: lifestyle-focused, fully managed, and built for real long-term value.

A Clear Shift Toward Growth

The numbers tell a strong story:

  • Inflation dropped to a multi-decade low of 0.7% in March 2025.
  • Foreign exchange reserves have tripled since early 2023, without adding external debt.
  • GDP growth is projected at around 3% for FY2025.
  • External debt ratios have declined, strengthening Pakistan’s financial resilience.

These improvements show that Pakistan isn’t just recovering, it is actively positioning itself for stable, sustainable growth. For investors, this means a stronger currency environment, healthier domestic demand, and better long-term returns, especially in asset-backed sectors like real estate.

Inflation Falls, Policy Rate Follows

According to the SBP, inflation has dropped significantly, reaching a multi-decade low of 0.7% in March 2025. In response, the central bank has reduced its policy rate to 12%, following a full 1,000 basis point cut since June 2024. This is a major shift, and it reflects a cooling economy that’s no longer fighting pressure but guiding it.


For investors, that means more clarity. Lower inflation creates stronger purchasing power. A stable policy environment allows better forecasting. And these conditions are precisely what drive demand for long-term, income-generating assets like real estate.

Fiscal Stability Supports Long-Term Real Estate Strength

Alongside monetary easing, Pakistan’s continued fiscal consolidation, reducing deficits while maintaining development priorities, is another reason why confidence is returning. When fiscal indicators improve, they signal to investors that a government is in control of its economic direction. For real estate markets, this means reduced volatility, fewer external shocks, and a steadier environment for appreciation and rental growth.


This kind of macro-level discipline directly benefits residential investment. Whether you’re buying for income, asset preservation, or a future family home, macro stability is what protects your investment.

Remittances and External Balance Add to Confidence

Pakistan’s external position remains steady, with the current account expected to stay between -0.5% and 0.5% of GDP. According to the SBP, foreign remittances and exports are outpacing import growth, helping to build up foreign exchange reserves without new debt.


For overseas Pakistanis, this isn’t just background data, it’s the exact momentum they’re investing in. The economic progress happening now is the foundation behind rising interest in residential real estate, especially in high-demand urban centres like Islamabad and Lahore. And that’s exactly where developers like One Homes are focused.

Built for a Future That’s Already Taking Shape

At One Homes, we are building more than homes; we are creating destinations. One of the latest projects, Trinity One, is designed thoughtfully to bring together comfort, convenience, and modern living under one roof. It will offer residents everything from a resort-style pool to a theatre, fitness centre, and a five-star restaurant.


And it isn’t just built to live in. It’s built to invest in. Overseas buyers can take advantage of our fully managed short-term rental model, earning dollar-linked returns without worrying about the day-to-day. Whether you use the property or not, the value keeps working.
This is what modern real estate in Pakistan looks like—designed for a new kind of investor.